7.1. HRASR 04-02-2018 - Laserfiche WebLink

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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Summary of Demographic Trends Population and Household Projections • Between 2010 and 2017, the Elk River population and households are estimated to have in- creased by 6.6% (1,510 people and 537 households), while Sherburne County and Wright County's populations grew by 5.7% and 8.1%, respectively. Population in the City of Elk River is projected to increase by 4.4% (1,077 people) from 2017 to 2022 and forecast to grow 7.0% (1,724) through 2025. Overall, Elk River's population is forecast to gain over 3,230 people (14%) from 2010 to 2025. Age Distribution Trends Between 2010 and 2025, the growth of the older age cohorts will continue in Elk River, those age 65 to 74 will experience the largest growth, growing 94% (1,118 people). All other age cohorts will experience a decline in population or experience nominal growth. • The 65 to 74 and 75 to 84 age cohorts will experience the largest growth (19.9% and 18.4% respectively) in the PMA between 2017 and 2022. The population 18 to 24 and 45 to 54 are projected to decline from 2017 to 2022 by 5.6% and 6.7%, respectively. All other age co- horts are expected to experience moderate growth in population. Household Income by Age of Householder The Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing costs as 30% of a household's adjusted gross income. For example, a household in Elk River with the median income of $78,428 per year would be able to afford a monthly housing cost of about $1,956. A generally accepted standard for affordable owner -occupied housing is that a typical household can afford to pay 3.0 to 3.5 times their annual income on a single-family home. Thus, a $78,428 income would translate to an affordable single-family home of $235,284 to $273,868. The higher end of this range assumes that the person has adequate funds for down payment and closing costs, but also does not include savings or equity in an existing home which would allow them to purchase a higher priced home. With a household income of $55,477, a younger household in Elk River (the median house- hold income for the 25 and under cohort) could afford a monthly housing cost of about $1,386 based on an allocation of 30% of income toward housing. A senior household (75+) in Elk River with an income of $36,403 (the median household income of seniors (75+) could afford a monthly housing cost of $1,213, based on an allocation of 40% of income toward housing. MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING 12