|
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
<br />Household growth trends are a more accurate indicator of housing needs than population
<br />growth since a household is, by definition, an occupied housing unit. Mentioned previously, a
<br />comparison of historic and projected population and household growth rates shows that
<br />household growth is projected to continue to outpace population growth in Elk River, due in
<br />large part, to the aging of the baby boom population into their empty- nester years.
<br />Population Age Distribution Trends
<br />The following graphs show the age distribution of the City of Elk River population in 2000 and
<br />2010, as well as estimates and projections for 2015 and 2020, respectively. Data provided in
<br />Table D -2 for the 2000 and 2010 distributions are from the U.S. Census. Maxfield Research and
<br />Consulting LLC calculated the 2015 estimate and 2020 projection based off of data obtained
<br />from ESRI Inc., and the Minnesota Department of Administration. The following are key trends
<br />in Elk River's age distribution:
<br />• The majority of age groups in Elk River experienced strong growth in population from 2000
<br />to 2010. The baby boomers ages 55 to 64 experienced the largest rate of growth increasing
<br />by 109% (1,143 people) followed by the 45 to 54 age group increased by 80% (1,572 people,
<br />the largest numerical growth).
<br />Over the current decade, most age groups are projected to continue to grow in all age
<br />cohorts albeit a much lower rate than during the last decade. The younger age groups
<br />below age 44 are projected to have slight increases as these groups consist mostly of the
<br />baby bust generation.
<br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC. 9
<br />TABLE D -1
<br />POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
<br />ELK RIVER
<br />1990 to 2025
<br />Change
<br />U.S. Census
<br />Estimated Projected J
<br />1990 to 2000 1
<br />1 2000 to 2010 1
<br />1 2010 to 2020
<br />Population
<br />Elk River
<br />11,143
<br />16,447 22,974
<br />23,547 24,576 25,632
<br />5,304
<br />47.6
<br />6,527
<br />39.7
<br />1,602
<br />7.0
<br />Sherburne County
<br />41,945
<br />64,417 88,499
<br />99,975 106,667 111,958
<br />22,472
<br />53.6
<br />24,082
<br />37.4
<br />18,168
<br />20.5
<br />Wright County
<br />68,710
<br />89,986 124,700
<br />143,740 155,175 163,610
<br />21,276
<br />31.0
<br />34,714
<br />38.6
<br />30,475
<br />24.4
<br />Households
<br />Elk River
<br />3,732
<br />5,664 8,080
<br />8,353 8,822 9,253
<br />1,932
<br />51.8
<br />2,416
<br />42.7
<br />742
<br />9.2
<br />Sherburne County
<br />13,643
<br />21,581 30,212
<br />34,310 36,874 39,041
<br />7,938
<br />58.2
<br />8,631
<br />40.0
<br />6,662
<br />22.1
<br />Wright County
<br />23,013
<br />31,465 44,473
<br />51,815 56,330 59,850
<br />8,452
<br />36.7
<br />13,008
<br />41.3
<br />11,857
<br />26.7
<br />Sources: U.S. Census; Minnesota Planning; ESRI, Inc; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
<br />Population Age Distribution Trends
<br />The following graphs show the age distribution of the City of Elk River population in 2000 and
<br />2010, as well as estimates and projections for 2015 and 2020, respectively. Data provided in
<br />Table D -2 for the 2000 and 2010 distributions are from the U.S. Census. Maxfield Research and
<br />Consulting LLC calculated the 2015 estimate and 2020 projection based off of data obtained
<br />from ESRI Inc., and the Minnesota Department of Administration. The following are key trends
<br />in Elk River's age distribution:
<br />• The majority of age groups in Elk River experienced strong growth in population from 2000
<br />to 2010. The baby boomers ages 55 to 64 experienced the largest rate of growth increasing
<br />by 109% (1,143 people) followed by the 45 to 54 age group increased by 80% (1,572 people,
<br />the largest numerical growth).
<br />Over the current decade, most age groups are projected to continue to grow in all age
<br />cohorts albeit a much lower rate than during the last decade. The younger age groups
<br />below age 44 are projected to have slight increases as these groups consist mostly of the
<br />baby bust generation.
<br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC. 9
<br />
|