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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />TABLE HD -5 <br />SUBSIDIZED INDEPENDENT SENIOR HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 & 2020 <br />Age 65+ Households w /Incomes < $20,000 <br />(times) Percent of Income Qualified Seniors Needing /Desiring Subsidized Senior Housing <br />(equals) Demand Potenital from Market Area residents <br />(plus) Demand From Ouside the Market Area (40 %) <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential for Subsidized Senior Housing in Market Area <br />(minus) Existing & Pending Subsidized Senior Units in Market Area* <br />(equals) Total Market Area Subsidized Senior Housing Demand Potential <br />* Competitive subsidized units, minus a 7% vacancy rate. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />2015 2020 <br />223 220 <br />x 30% <br />30% <br />= 67 <br />66 <br />+ 45 <br />44 <br />112 <br />110 <br />118 <br />118 <br />= 0 <br />0 <br />We anticipate that at least 40% of the demand for subsidized senior housing in Elk River will <br />come from seniors currently residing in surrounding communities who would move to the Elk <br />River to be near their family or for other reasons. Including demand from outside of Elk River <br />increases total demand potential to 112 units in 2015 and 110 units in 2020. <br />From this potential demand, we subtract the existing number of competitive housing units in <br />Elk River. Currently, there are only two identified subsidized senior buildings in the Market <br />Area with a total of 122 units and are both fully occupied with waiting lists. Subtracting these <br />units, minus a 3% vacancy factor, results in sufficient subsidized units in Elk River in both 2015 <br />and 2020. The existing subsidized housing units are sufficiently serving the Elk River market <br />through 2020. <br />Estimated Demand for Congregate Senior Housing <br />Table HD -6 presents our demand calculations for congregate housing in Elk River in 2015 and <br />2020. <br />The potential age- and income - qualified base for congregate senior housing includes all senior <br />(65 +) households with incomes of $35,000 as well as homeowner households with incomes <br />between $25,000 and $35,000 who would qualify with the proceeds from the sales of their <br />homes. The proportion of eligible homeowners is based on the homeownership rates of areas <br />seniors, as identified in the demographics section of this study. The number of age, income, <br />and asset - qualified households in Elk River is estimated to be 1,282 households in 2015. <br />Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of households age 65 <br />to 74 and 11.0% of households age 75 and older) results in a local demand potential for 65 <br />congregate units in 2015. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 90 <br />