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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br />Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that households with incomes of $40,000 or more <br />and homeowners with incomes of $230,000 to $39,999 would income qualify for market rate <br />independent senior housing in 2020. Considering the growth in the older adult base, the <br />income distribution of the older adult population in 2020, the methodology projected that <br />there will be no demand for adult owner - occupied units and increase to 77 adult rental units <br />in the City of Elk River by 2020. <br />Estimated Demand for Affordable Independent Senior Housing <br />Table HD -4 presents our demand calculations for affordable senior housing for households with <br />incomes qualifying at or below 50% and 80% of AMI in Elk River in 2015 and 2020. <br />In order to arrive at the potential age and income - qualified base for low- income and affordable <br />housing, we include all senior (65 +) households that qualify for the income guidelines for one - <br />and two - person households in 2015 at or below 50% and 80% of AMI ($30,350 and $52,650). <br />Adjusting to include appropriate long -term capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of <br />households age 55 to 64, about 10.0% of households age 65 to 74, and 20.0% of households <br />age 75 and over) results in a market rate demand potential for 23 independent senior rental <br />units in 2015. <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 88 <br />TABLE HD -4 <br />AFFORDABLE INDEPENDENT SENIOR <br />HOUSING DEMAND <br />ELK RIVER <br />2015 & 2020 <br />Age "65-74 der <br />Age of Householder <br />55 -64 <br />75+ <br />55 -64 <br />65 -74 <br />75+ <br /># of Households w/ Incomes of $28,000 to $52,650 <br />233 <br />208 262 <br />197 <br />213 <br />288 <br />(times ) Percent Renter Households <br />x 13% <br />16% 37% <br />x 13% <br />16% <br />37% <br />(equals) Total Potential Market Base <br />= 30 <br />33 97 <br />26 <br />34 <br />107 <br />(times) Potential Capture Rate <br />x 1.5% <br />10.0% 20.0% <br />x 1.5% <br />10.0% <br />20.0% <br />(equals) Demand Potential <br />= 0 3 19 <br />= 0 <br />3 <br />21 <br />= 23 <br />= <br />25 <br />Total Market Rate Demand Potential <br />(plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (40 %) <br />+ 15 <br />+ <br />17 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential <br />= 39 <br />= <br />42 <br />(minus) Existing and Pending Aff. Independent Units' <br />- 0 <br />- <br />0 <br />(equals) Total Demand Potential in Market Area <br />= 39 <br />= <br />42 <br />' Includes existing and pending units at 95% occupancy, or market <br />equilibrium. <br />No additional units are planned <br />through <br />2020. <br />Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC <br />MAXFIELD RESEARCH & CONSULTING, LLC 88 <br />