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<br />As stated earlier there are two key measures BNSF uses in their impact analysis. The <br />table below displays the results. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Scenario <br />1998 Base <br />2003 A <br />2003 B <br /> <br />Freight Delay per 100 Train Miles <br />27 minutes <br />36 minutes <br />33 minutes <br /> <br />Freight Elapsed Time per 100 Train Miles <br />388 minutes <br />389 minutes <br />361 minutes <br /> <br />It is important to note that all delay and transit or elapsed time references are due to <br />freight movements only. The reduction in elapsed time for Scenario 20003B is because <br />of the change in inspection and fueling point to Minot. It is the BNSF position that they <br />do not need to add capacity in order to accommodate Year 2003 traffic. After review of <br />the statistical data it was agreed that this position is reasonable. The Scenario 2003B <br />results define the freight standard to which the system should come close to operating at <br />with the addition of the commuter trains. <br /> <br />Freight and Commuter Rail Capacity Modeling Simulation Analysis <br /> <br />Once the Scenario 2003B base case was established, eighteen trains (Concept Service <br />Plan B) were added to determine the effects on BNSF freight operations. Initially it <br />became apparent that there were several problems with the proposed commuter schedule. <br /> <br />1. Northstar Commuter Rail #2 train's departure from Elk River at 5:48 AM created a <br />conflict with the Amtrak service, which is due in Elk River at 5:56 AM. The fix for <br />this problem was to move the Northstar #2 train start time to 5:40 AM. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />2. Another overall problem was that the train performance calculator results did not <br />support the 85-minute schedule for commuter trains from St. Cloud to Minneapolis. <br />This problem was solved after equipment type and number of trains were verified and <br />it was decided to lengthen the commuter rail schedule to 90 minutes for the St. Cloud <br />to Minneapolis trip. Elk River and Ramsey commuter rail schedules were then <br />amended to 46 and 36 minutes, respectively. <br /> <br />Once the schedule changes were made an initial simulation was completed with the <br />commuter trains added to the system without any capacity upgrades. Through an <br />iterative process, BNSF made improvements to the system by adding trackage and <br />improving signal systems. These improvements were made in several upgrade <br />"packages" indicated in Table 1 and shown in the attached figures. <br /> <br />At this point, it is the BNSF position that Upgrade 7 may be adequate, however there is a <br />concern about the increase in delay in Upgrade 7 compared to the Base Case. It is the <br />position of the NCDA technical staff that Upgrade 2 provides significant benefits and <br />should be combined with the additions in Upgrade 6 and changes in Upgrade 7 to <br />determine overall results. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Draft Commuter Rail Technical Feasibility Study <br />December 1998 <br /> <br />4-2 <br />Capacity Modeling <br />