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<br />RIDERSIDP <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Ridership estimates for the Northstar Commuter Rail system are preliminary and are <br />currently being reviewed by Project Management Team technical stafffor their <br />reasonableness and accuracy. Therefore, the numbers shown could change as further <br />analysis is completed and additional calculations are performed to refine the ridership <br />estimates. <br /> <br />Basic Methodology <br /> <br />The estimation of commuter rail ridership for the Northstar Corridor actually requires two <br />forecasts: <br /> <br />1. A forecast of total person travel within the area served by the commuter rail line - by <br />origin, destination and purpose, irrespective of mode. <br /> <br />2. A forecast of the market share that the proposed commuter rail service will capture <br />relative to competing modes - expressed as a percentage of total travel. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The ridership model structure is a nested logit mode choice model. The commuter rail <br />mode choice model was provided by MnDOT and was used in MnDOT's Twin Cities <br />Metropolitan Commuter Rail Study. The model basically estimates home-based work <br />market shares for auto, bus/light rail and commuter rail. For the transit modes of travel, <br />the model differentiates between walk and drive access. <br /> <br />The basic model inputs that are used to estimate potential ridership on the Northstar <br />Commuter Rail System are the following. <br /> <br />· The model estimates mode shares for travel between any two zones based on the time <br />and cost of travel for the competing modes, and the propensity of travelers to choose <br />one mode over another. <br /> <br />· The time and cost of travel by competing modes is determined using computerized <br />representations of the highway and transit networks. <br /> <br />· For this project, the highway and transit networks used for the Twin Cities Regional <br />model were expanded to cover the 15 county Northstar study area. <br /> <br />Data Sources <br /> <br />Several data sources were used in estimating the ridership forecasts. All data sources <br />were readily available from the Twin Cities Metropolitan Council (Met Council), the St. <br />Cloud Area Planning Organization (APO), and the Minnesota Department of <br />Transportation (MnDOT). The data sources used are as follows. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Draft Commuter Rail Technical Feasibility Study <br />December 1998 <br /> <br />3-1 <br />Ridership <br />