6.0. EDSR 01-12-2004 - Laserfiche WebLink

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• IMPORTANT NORTHSTAR PROJECT UPDATE 1.1 :(r 83 New Developments on the Progress of Northstar Over the last several months, the Northstar Corridor Development Authority (NCDA) has been working with the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) to update ridership forecasts for input into a cost-effectiveness model that the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) will use to evaluate the Northstar commuter rail project. The NCDA has recently received important, yet mixed news in regard to these issues. Modified (Shorter) Northstar Line Likely to Pass a Key Hurdle with the FTA The FTA has developed a rigorous new cost-effectiveness index for evaluating transit projects seeking federal funding. Under the FTA's evaluation standard, a modified (shorter) Northstar line is likely to meet the cost-effectiveness index. The FTA may require that the NCDA reduce the current 82-mile configuration from St. Cloud/Rice to Minneapolis to a 40-mile segment that ends at Big Lake. This 40-mile segment — from Big Lake to Minneapolis -will likely meet the standard, but apparently extending the line to St. Cloud/Rice falls short of meeting the FTA's requirement. The NCDA will need to obtain a final evaluation of the entire project from the FTA before making a final decision on the configuration of the Northstar service. "A number of transit projects around the country are struggling to meet the more rigorous FTA criteria," said Yantos. "We're told that other projects around the country that have met FTA evaluations in the past will not meet the new standards, so we are pleased that the Northstar 41) project, with some modifications, is likely to meet this standard for federal approval." Governor Pawlenty has indicated he will use the FTA evaluation as a critical factor in his decision whether to recommend Northstar in his 2004 bonding bill. In addition, it is critical to scope the Northstar project to a configuration that the FTA will approve — without FTA approval we will not be able to move ahead with the project. Ridership Projections Look Good We are encouraged that by using the previously accepted FTA ridership model to develop an "apples-to-apples" comparison to earlier estimates, ridership on the full Rice/St. Cloud to Twin Cities route would exceed the previous estimates of approximately 10,000 daily riders. If the FTA requires Northstar to end at Big Lake, based on the new FTA evaluation criteria, the projected ridership is estimated to be approximately 5,600 riders per day.