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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br /> TABLE HD-6 <br /> MARKET RATE CONGREGATE HOUSING DEMAND <br /> ELK RIVER <br /> 2015&2020 <br /> 2015 2020 <br /> Age of Age of <br /> Householder Householder <br /> 65-74 75+ 65-74 75+ <br /> #of Households w/Incomes of>$35,0001 732 430 928 489 <br /> #of Households w/Incomes of$25,000 to$34,999' + 77 88 + 79 113 <br /> (times) Homeownership Rate x 84% 63% x 84% 63% <br /> (equals)Potential Market = 65 55 = 66 71 <br /> (equals)Total Potential Market Base = 797 485 = 994 560 <br /> (times) Potential Capture Ratee x 1.5% 11.0% x 1.5% 11.0% <br /> (equals) Demand Potential = 12 + 53 = 15 + 62 <br /> Potential Demand from Market Area Residents = 65 = 77 <br /> (plus) Demand from Outside Market Area (25%) + 22 + 26 <br /> (equals)Total Demand Potential = 87 = 102 <br /> (minus) Existing and Pending Congregate Units3 - 0 - 0 <br /> (equals)Excess Demand for Congregate Units = 87 = 102 <br /> 12020 calculations define income-qualified households as all households with incomes greater than$40,000 and homeowner <br /> households with incomes between$30,000 and$49,999. <br /> 2 The potential capture rate is derived from data from the Summary Health Statistics for the U.S.Population:National Health <br /> Interview Survey,2007 by the U.S.Department of Health and Human Services. The capture rate used is the percentage of seniors <br /> needing assistance with IADLS,but not ADLs(seniors needing assistance with ADLs typcially need assistance with multiple IADLS and <br /> are primary candidates for assisted living.). <br /> 3 Existing and pending are deducted at market equilibrium(95% <br /> occupancy). <br /> Source: Maxfield Research&Consulting, LLC <br /> We estimate that seniors currently residing outside of Elk River will generate 25%of the <br /> demand for congregate senior housing. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult <br /> children living in Elk River, individuals who live just outside Elk River and have an orientation to <br /> the area, and former residents who desire to return upon retirement. Together, the demand <br /> from Elk River seniors and demand from seniors who are willing to locate to Elk River totals 87 <br /> units of congregate senior housing in 2015. <br /> Since there are no existing congregate units in Elk River, we do not reduce the demand <br /> potential by any competitive units. As a result, demand is calculated for 87 congregate units in <br /> Elk River in 2015. <br /> Adjusting for inflation, we estimate that households with incomes of$35,000 or more and <br /> senior homeowners with incomes between $25,000 and $35,000 would qualify for congregate <br /> housing in 2017. Following the same methodology, demand is calculated to increase to 102 <br /> units through 2020. <br /> MAXFIELD RESEARCH&CONSULTING,LLC 91 <br />