2. HRSR 02-01-2016 - Laserfiche WebLink

Home Browse Search

HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS Combining demand from household growth plus turnover results in total demand in Elk River for 375 rental units over the next 10 years. Next, we estimate that 15%of the total demand for new for-sale units in the Elk River will come from people currently living outside of Elk River for a total of 442 rental units. We then estimate the number of rental units each product type could capture in Elk River. This capture rate is estimated based on the current products and product pricing within in Elk River along with household incomes for current renters. We find that there is demand for 44 subsidized housing units, 133 affordable rental units, and 265 market rate units. From the total demand for general occupancy units, we subtract any development under construction or proposed at market equilibrium (95%occupancy) to find the remaining excess demand in Elk River. At the time of this study there was no one planned rental developments and thus, excess demand remains for 44 subsidized units, 133 affordable units, and 265 market rate units. Estimated Demand for Independent Adult/Few Service Senior Housing Table HD-3 presents our demand calculations for market rate independent senior housing in Elk River in 2015 and 2020. In order to determine demand for independent senior housing, the potential market is reduced to those households that are both age and income qualified. The age-qualified market is defined as seniors age 55 and older, although independent living projects will primarily attract seniors age 65 and older. We calculate that the minimum income needed to afford monthly rents is $35,000, since seniors with this income could afford a monthly rent of$1,165 based on spending 40% of their income, which is much higher than the rents of$635 to $734 for two-bedroom units at Elk Terrace and slightly higher than rent of$1,109 at Evans Park for two-bedroom apartments. It is important to note that the existing developments are both over 20 years old and a new senior development would garner the higher rents. In addition, we add households with incomes between $25,000 and $34,999 who would be able to supplement their incomes with the proceeds from a home sale. We estimate the number of age/income-qualified senior households in Elk River in 2015 to be 2,558 households. Adjusting to include appropriate long-term capture rates for each age cohort (0.5%of households age 55 to 64, about 5.0%of households age 65 to 74, and 15.0%of households age 75 and over) results in a market rate demand potential for 119 independent senior rental units in 2015. Some additional demand will come from outside Elk River. We estimate that 25%of the long- term demand for independent senior housing will be generated by seniors currently residing MAXFIELD RESEARCH&CONSULTING,LLC 86