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<br />no substantial variations in the courses of the Mississippi and Elk rivers in the past 6000 <br />years, we have not accounted for the moderate variations that may have occurred, For <br />smaller streams and lakes, this assumption also holds true, with less certainty as to the age <br />and stability of those streams and lakes. Because of its location in a transitional zon~, we <br />cannot model for vegetation coverage prior to A.D, 300, and have assumed moderate <br />stability in vegetation coverage since that time. <br />As a rule of thumb, the farther back in time one wishes to go, the less reliable the model <br />becomes. <br /> <br />Elk River Model Parameters <br />The Archeological Probability model works with three basic parameters: proximity to <br />water, topography, and vegetation coverage. <br />Water: Until very recendy proximity to a water source was an absolute essential for any <br />sustainable usage of a landscape. This is the most heavily weighted category in the model, as <br />proximity to water determines accessibility to a variety of essential resources. Not only does <br />such proximity provide the obvious necessity of drinking water, it is also clear that other <br />essential resources are found near water sources. These include the many useful plants of <br />riparian and wetland areas as well as fish and fowl as food sources. Streams and rivers <br />provide erosional areas where gravels and stones are uncovered; these were essential on a <br />daily basis for prehistoric people who used the minerals as the base material for many of <br />their tools. Additionally, for most of Minnesota history (pre 1850s), waterways, especially <br />rivers like the Mississippi and Elk provided the major transportation routes; by canoes and <br />water craft in warmer months, and by snowshoeing in the colder months. <br />For this model, three types of waters have been used: lakes, rivers and perennial streams. <br />Areas closer to the water sources are more probable to contain archaeological sites than <br />areas farther away. These categories are weighted, with rivers receiving the most emphasis <br />because of their essential role in transportation, lakes receiving the next highest emphasis <br />because of their abundant supply of natural resources, and perennial streams third. <br />The model is, of course, limited by the accuracy ~d reliability of the datasets it relies <br />upon. 1bis is most telling in its use of hydrological data, As discussed above, it is to be <br />expected that the courses of rivers and streams, as well as size and location of lake, has <br />changed over time. The base hydrological data comes from mapping of current streams, <br /> <br />21 <br />