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<br />Archaeological Probability Model <br /> <br />Bac;:.kgmund and Th~~ <br />The archaeological probability model is based on the types of environmental settings that <br />past inhabitants of Elk River would have found most suitable for habitation and use, <br />Models are simplified constructions of more complex phenomena, and begin with the most <br />important factors that lead to a final outcome or result. For Elk River, certain <br />environmental parameters provide strong factors in determining where peoples in the past <br />lived. Humans in the pre-industrial eras were far more constrained by environmental <br />conditions than we are today. In the past, people coulri not prosp~r at illloc~t:.cn::; en ~~ <br />landscape; in the present (with the benefit of heavy machinery and engineering skills) we are <br />much more accustomed to modifying the landscape to fit our needs and desires. Many <br />obvious constraints come to mind: humans cannot survive without access to perennial fresh <br />water; farmers cannot prosper without arable land, villages can not be placed on precipitous <br />slopes. We can develop reasonable probability models to depict a range of suitable <br />environments in which humans could have prospered. <br />Human behavior and human choice, on the other hand, are difficult to model, because <br />they often cannot be predicted given the logic of an observer removed hundreds or even <br />thousands of years, and because human behavior is not consistent. When human choice is <br />introduced, many different outcomes are possible. For example, many people settle in <br />locations for reasons of tradition or family ties, even when more enVironmentally amenable <br />spots may exist ("it was good enough for grandpa and it's good enough for me''). This <br />behavior, which we all know is common among humans, cannot be readily modeled. <br />Combine this with the dearth of information on prehistoric settlements in the Elk River, and <br />there is limited predictive value in the model. Rather, the purpose of the model is to assess <br />the probability that specific kinds of locations and environments were favored by prior <br />inhabitants of Elk River. In other words, the model can identify which areas would have <br />been most amenable and thus most likely to have been utilized and inhabited in the past, but <br />the model cannot determine whether such areas were actuallY utilized. Thus while the model <br />is a useful planning tool, field studies are still essential. <br /> <br />Elk River Environmental Setting <br /> <br />19 <br />