6.0. HANDOUT SR 04-27-1998 - Laserfiche WebLink

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i The TAZ map was overlaid upon a map showing block numbers from the 1990 U.S. Census. Population and housing unit counts by block were converted to population and number of dwelling units in each TAZ in 1990. Annual compilation of new dwelling units by neighborhood provided by the City were used to expand the number of households in each TAZ to 1992 numbers. All existing and proposed commercial,industrial and recreational areas were outlined on the March 1992 revision of the City Zoning Map. Discussion with City staff led to a"percent presently occupied" designation for each area. Acres of commercial or industrial land currently in use were calculated by multiplying the total acreage by the percent occupied for each area. The TAZ map was overlaid upon the Zoning Map to allocate commercial, industrial and recreational acreages to TAZs. To estimate ultimate households, total acreage of land ultimately available for residential use was calculated for each TAZ. Average residential lot sizes were estimated for each TAZ based upon its location on the Residential zones density map, figure 4-A in the City of Elk River Growth Management Plan dated August 22, 1988. This map divides the city into three zones: medium density residential, low-density residential (minimum lot size 2.5 acres) and agricultural (minimum lot size 10.0 acres). Total acreage was divided by average acres per household to arrive at total households at ultimate development. Ultimate commercial, industrial and recreational acreage was simply a matter of adding up acreage of designated areas on the Zoning Map within each TAZ. Table 1 shows existing and forecasted ultimate population, households, and commercial, industrial and recreational acreage for each TAZ. This is the basic data used to proceed into the travel demand modeling process. C. Travel Demand Modeling Travel demand modeling is the process by which socioeconomic data is changed to ' trip making dat in order to determine the ability of a roadway network to handle projected demands. The general practice is to follow a standard methodology of trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and trip assignment. Modal split analysis has a goal of estimating the effect of transit usage on the total number of vehicle trips placed on the network. In the case of Elk River, we conservatively estimated that ' transit usage would have a negligible effect - that by far the preferred means of transportation would remain the personal vehicle, as it is today. Many factors can influence the share of total person-trips that transit enjoys, including gas prices and fuel availability, transit routes offered, traffic congestion and "social desirability" of transit. By being conservative and estimating a limited impact of transit, we are not suggesting that it would not or should not play a significant role in Elk River. On the contrary, a good system will reduce energy dependence and traffic congestion. This is further discussed later in the report. I CTP-230.156 -4 230-156-80