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was done by calculating the annual average population growth rate needed <br /> achieve the U.S. Census Bureau year 2000 population projection and <br /> Ito determining the number of years needed at this growth rate to reach the <br /> estimated ultimate population. Since it is reasonable to assume that the <br /> annual percentage growth rate will decrease as the City approaches ultimate <br /> Idevelopment, some years were added to the calculated number. The result <br /> was an estimate of ultimate development in 40 years. Realistically this is not <br /> likely to occur since gravel miners will probably still be operating in the <br /> northern part of the City in 40 years, and therefore large areas that are zoned <br /> residential will not yet be built upon. However, it is a reasonable time frame <br /> Ifor the planning purpose of estimating external traffic volumes. <br /> A relationship was established between estimated population growth in the <br /> I City of Elk River and counties around Elk River, and growth of external <br /> traffic volumes. Population forecasts from the State Demography Unit <br /> publication entitled "Minnesota Population Projections 1980-2010" were <br /> Iobtained for Sherburne, Wright, Hennepin, Anoka, Mille Lacs, Steams and <br /> Benton Counties. Trends in population change were extended to the year <br /> 2030 for each county. For each external zone, the county population <br /> Iforecasts were used in varying degrees in conjunction with Elk River <br /> population forecasts to estimate traffic volume changes. Volume changes <br /> I were calculated separately for external-external (E-E) and external-internal <br /> (E-I)trips(see Section II.C.2,Trip Distribution, for discussion of E-E and E-I <br /> trips). <br /> IThe result of trip generation analysis was a listing of existing and ultimate <br /> trips generated by type(residential, commercial/industrial) for the 14 TAZs, <br /> I and existing and ultimate trips generated by the 13 external zones. From this <br /> point on in the process, trips generated by recreational facilities were <br /> included in commercial/industrial totals. <br /> I <br /> 2. Trip Distribution <br /> IAfter trips are generated for each TAZ and external zone they must be <br /> distributed. Trips are divided into three categories: external-external (E-E), <br /> I external-internal (E-I), and internal-internal (I-I). External-external trips are <br /> those trips where a vehicle passes through the City from one external zone to <br /> another without making a single stop. In order to determine how many trips <br /> I fall into each category an origin-destination(O-D)survey must be done. O-D <br /> surveys can be done in a variety of ways, including roadside interviews, <br /> handing out post cards to drivers, moving vehicle license plate surveys, <br /> Idwelling unit interviews, vehicle owner mail questionnaires, and others. In <br /> Elk River we decided to conduct a moving vehicle license plate survey on <br /> Trunk Highways 10, 169, and 101. This was the most reasonable method <br /> Ifrom a cost perspective when one considered the time in the field collecting <br /> data and the office data reduction time. It was also the safest and least <br /> I disruptive to traffic, since vehicles were not required to slow down or stop at <br /> a survey station. This was a particularly important consideration when <br /> conducting a survey on busy multi-lane highways. <br /> ICTP-230.156 -9 230-156-80 <br />