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<br />rCI ~\( <br />( 1/ <br />Eli{ <br />River ::~M: <br /> <br />MEMORANDUM <br /> <br /> <br />Pat Klaers, City Adminstrator <br />Michele MCPherso~ctor of Planning <br /> <br />DATE: <br /> <br />February 3, 2000 <br /> <br />SUBJECT: <br /> <br />Elk River Growth Projections: 2000 <br /> <br />Request <br /> <br />You requested an analysis of past platting and building permit activity and an estimate for 2000 <br />of population and households. <br /> <br />Attachments <br /> <br />. Table: Elk River Growth History 1991-2000 <br />. Chart: Lots Platted to Permits Issued Comparison 1995-2000 <br /> <br />Analvsis <br /> <br />A review of the City's demographics indicates that the City has experienced steady growth over <br />the last ten years. This is clearly evident when reviewing the Growth History Table. In the early <br />nineties, the City experienced growth in the 3.5% range; jumping to 5.5% from 1995 to 1996. <br />Growth remained steady at this pace until 1999, where it is estimated that the growth rate will <br />drop to 4.5%. The average growth rate since 1991 is estimated at approximately 4%. This is <br />steady growth rate is further supported by the steady average of approximately 218 single <br />family/townhome permits issued over the last five years. The number of building permits issued <br />has remained relatively constant regardless of the number of lots platted per year. <br /> <br />Staff is projecting that for 2000; the City's population and households will grow at approximately <br />4%. This is based on lower housing starts in 1999 than 1998 and the recent increase in interest <br />rates, which may further slow housing starts. The majority of future growth (2000-05) will <br />continue to occur within the eastern portion of the Urban Service District, east of Highway 169 <br />and north and south of 18151 Avenue (County Road 12) <br /> <br />I hope this information is helpful to the School District and the Council. Please contact me if <br />you need further assistance. <br /> <br />13065 Orono Parkway. P.O. Box 490. Elk River, MN 55330. TDD & Phone: (612) 441-7420. Fax: (612) 441-7425 <br />