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DRAFT IMPLEMENTATION/BUSINESS PLAN <br />Working Paper of September 30, 1998 -- Page 9 <br /> <br />The preceding table provides an overview of the basic cost and ridership numbers for each <br />of the Phase II routes. It also provides input for the evaluation matrix in the next section of <br />this paper, and the information for formulation of a staged implementation program. <br /> <br />Criteria for inclusion in a first phase of development include a variety of cost-related <br />indices, including total Capital investment and passenger projections, cost per passenger <br />mile, benefit-cost measures, federal cost-effectiveness guidelines, coincidence with <br />development patterns and plans, regional service balance and ease of operational <br />implementation. Together, these indicators furnish a useful comparative approach among <br />the routes on both technical an policy grounds. <br /> <br />However, the capital cost per mile on its own does not provide a useful relative measure <br />for route evaluation. It is independent of ridership and does not vary significantly among <br />routes. It is included in the table because it is helpful in demonstrating that costs fall <br />within anticipated levels. At $ 6.4 to $ 8.6 million per mile for constructing and equipping <br />each of the six radial routes, including common system elements and the 10 miles of the <br />Route T downtown connector, capital investments are within the range expected for <br />commuter rail start-ups in the United States. And these costs are well below even simple <br />urban transit light rail ($20 to $40 million per mile) and heavy rail ($50 to $100 million or <br />more per mile) systems. Costs per passenger mile, factoring in projected ridership, <br />constitute a more meaningful comparative tool. <br /> <br />SECTION 3. INITIAL IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMS <br /> <br />Development all of the fidl Phase !I routes would require a near-term expenditure of <br />nearly $1.4 billion covering capital components alone. Such a substantial front-end <br />investment for a start-up system in a region without any recent commuter or urban rail <br />transit experience requires examination to determine whether some of the capital costs can <br />be reduced or deferred, and whether implementation of the system can be phased to better <br />fit regional patterns and resources. Can any of the routes themselves he shortened initially? <br />Can a rational staging plan call for less than all routes to be developed as a first stage? In <br />the process, can overall capital and operating requirements be reduced substantially? <br />Three approaches to capital cost savings are presented in this section, followed by a <br />recommended plan. : <br /> <br /> <br />