ERMUSR MISC. ISSUES 01-13-2004 - Laserfiche WebLink

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3 Political and Legislative Outlook Democrats face an uphill fight for the White House and Congress The presidential election and races for the ed party, a new Republican governor in California House and Senate are going to dominate po- and the presidential bully pulpit. And he doesn't have litical discussion in 2004. By March, Democ- a strong third party candidate like Ross Perot, whose rats will know who is likely to win their nomination to 19% of the vote helped defeat his father in 1992. face President Bush. Congressional contests will be 1 well under way, and election-year politics are sure to House Contests influence the shape and timing of major legislation. Although the current makeup of Congress is narrow- ly divided, Democrats face long odds of taking con- The Presidential Race trol of either the House or the Senate in 2004. The Democratic Party's nominee in 2004 faces an up- ' hill battle to unseat the incumbent. REDISTRICTING after the 2000 census has shifted con- While Bush cruises to an easy renomination, De- gressional seats from Democratic strongholds in the mocrats will have to recover from a bruising primary Northeast to the GOP-leaning South. New congres- , marathon that will highlight the differences between sional boundaries in key states such as Texas and party moderates and liberals, who provide the most Michigan firm up Republican districts. That leaves strident opposition to the president. Democrats with fewer takeover opportunities. KEY CAMPAIGN ISSUES include the economy, national RETIREMENTS also favor the GOP. Senior Democrats, security, the U.S. occupation of Iraq and health care. facing slim prospects of regaining committee chair- Although the economy will strengthen through manships, are retiring in greater numbers than Re- 2004, Democrats are sure to focus on the slow pace publicans. Districts lacking an incumbent in the race of job creation. They'll be espe- are most likely to see party cially vocal about Bush's tax The cost and availability switches. cuts,which they claim benefit the rich, prompt huge deficits of health care Senate Races and fail to create jobs. With at least four Democrats - Bush will counter by touting is sure to be a from the South retiring, it's un- an improving economy and in- likely that the party can take silting that low-and moderate- major campaign issue. control of the Senate,despite income taxpayers saw their tax the fact that Republicans now bills drop by a larger percentage than the wealthy did. hold the majority by only one seat. National security will be on voters' minds. Bush will cite his willingness to act alone if necessary to THE EDGE GOES TO THE GOP because Democrats Zell prevent attacks on the U.S.,while Democrats will in- Miller of Georgia, Ernest Hollings of South Carolina, sist that Bush has damaged relations with longtime al- John Edwards of North Carolina and Bob Graham of lies. U.S. policy in Iraq is going to dominate the parti- Florida are among senators who won't seek reelectioi san debate, including such issues as pre-war in 2004. They are from states in which Republican intelligence,postwar management and casualties. candidates have a realistic chance of winning. In ad- The cost and availability of health care is sure to dition, Tom Daschle of South Dakota,a top Democ- be a major campaign issue. Democrats will call for ratic critic of Bush, is likely to face a tough reelectior more government programs to address health incur- bid in a state that is trending toward the GOP. ance problems,while Bush will tout Medicare re- A Democrat has a shot at an open seat in Illinois forms that help seniors pay for prescription drugs. created by the retirement of Peter Fitzgerald. Also in Alaska, where Republican Lisa Murkowski holds the TACTICAL ADVANTAGES go to Bush. He enjoys a big Senate seat vacated by her father when he was elect- edge in campaign funding over the Democratic con- ed governor. She was appointed by her father in De- tenders. He also has a veteran campaign staff, a unit- cember 2002,and she is thought to be vulnerable. 6 I The Kiplinger Letter • KiplingerForecasts.com