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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
<br /> Household growth trends are a more accurate indicator of housing needs than population
<br /> growth since a household is, by definition, an occupied housing unit. Mentioned previously, a
<br /> comparison of historic and projected population and household growth rates shows that
<br /> household growth is projected to continue to outpace population growth in Elk River, due in
<br /> large part, to the aging of the baby boom population into their empty-nester years.
<br /> TABLE D-1
<br /> POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
<br /> ELK RIVER
<br /> 1990 to 2020
<br /> Change
<br /> U.S.Census Projected 1990 to 2000 I I 2000 to 2010 I I 2010 to 2020
<br /> 1990 2000 2010 2020 No. Km No. Elm No. NM
<br /> Population
<br /> Elk River 11,143 16,447 22,974 26,265 5,304 47.6 6,527 39.7 3,291 14.3
<br /> Sherburne County 41,945 64,417 88,499 109,250 22,472 53.6 24,082 37.4 20,751 23.4
<br /> Wright County 68,710 89,986 124,700 153,680 21,276 31.0 34,714 38.6 28,980 23.2
<br /> Households
<br /> Elk River 3,732 5,664 8,080 9,360 1,932 51.8 2,416 42.7 1,280 15.8
<br /> Sherburne County 13,643 21,581 30,212 37,750 7,938 58.2 8,631 40.0 7,538 25.0
<br /> Wright County 23,013 31,465 44,473 55,750 8,452 36.7 13,008 41.3 11,277 25.4
<br /> Sources: U.S.Census;Minnesota Planning;ESRI,Inc;Maxfield Research Inc.
<br /> Population Age Distribution Trends
<br /> The following graphs show the age distribution of the City of Elk River population in 2000 and
<br /> 2010, as well as projections for 2017. Data provided in Table D-2 for the 2000 and 2010
<br /> distributions are from the U.S. Census. Maxfield Research Inc. calculated the 2017 projections
<br /> based off of data obtained from ESRI Inc., and the Minnesota Department of Administration.
<br /> The following are key trends in Elk River's age distribution:
<br /> • The majority of age groups in Elk River experienced strong growth in population from 2000
<br /> to 2010. The baby boomers ages 55 to 64 experienced the largest rate of growth increasing
<br /> by 109% (1,143 people) followed by the 45 to 54 age group increased by 80% (1,572 people,
<br /> the largest numerical growth).
<br /> • Over the next seven years, all age groups are projected to continue to grow in all age
<br /> cohorts albeit a much lower rate than during the last decade. The younger age groups
<br /> below age 44 are projected to have slight increases as these groups consist mostly of the
<br /> baby bust generation.
<br /> • The 55 to 64 age cohort is projected to increase by nearly 826 people (38%), while the 45 to
<br /> 54 age group is projected to increase by 213 people (6%). These older adults and seniors
<br /> may be considering downsizing into low-maintenance or independent living housing.
<br /> MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 12
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