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HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS <br /> types while the remaining 15% will prefer a maintenance-free multi-family product (i.e. twin <br /> homes, townhomes, or condominiums). <br /> We then subtract the current identified platted lots that are under construction or approved. <br /> After subtracting the current lot supply we find total demand through 2017 results in only 16 <br /> single-family units and roughly no multifamily units. This is the result of an expansive supply of <br /> already platted lots in Elk River. <br /> TABLE HD-1 <br /> FOR-SALE HOUSING DEMAND <br /> ELK RIVER <br /> 2012 to 2017 <br /> Demand from Projected Household Growth <br /> Projected household growth in the Elk River Study Area 2012 to 2017' 680 <br /> (times)Pct.of HH growth for general occupancy housing2 x 67% <br /> (equals)Projected demand for general occupancy units = 456 <br /> (times)Propensity to Own3 x 81% <br /> (equals)Total demand potential for ownership housing(2012 to 2017) = 369 <br /> Single Family Multi-family' <br /> (times)Percent desiring for-sale single-famiy vs.multifamily' x 85% 15% <br /> (equals) Total demand potential for new single-family&multifamily for-sale housing = 314 55 <br /> (minus)Units under construction or approved platted lots(undeveloped and developed lots)for development' - 298 102 <br /> (equals)Excess demand for new general occupancy for-sale housing = 16 0 <br /> 1 Estimated household growth based on data from the Minnesota Demographic Center,ESRI,Elk River Building Permits,and Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> Pct.of household growth age 65 and younger(U.S.Census-2010,ESRI,Maxfield Research Inc.). <br /> 'Pct.Owner households age 65and younger(2010) <br /> °Based on household turnover and mobility data(American Community Survey U.S.Census-2010). <br /> 'Based on preference for housing type and land availability <br /> 6 Approved platted lot data does not account for the scattered lot supply which includes individual lots and lots in older non marketing subdivisions. <br /> Multi-family demand includes demand for townhomes,twinhomes,and condominium units. <br /> Source: Maxfield Research Inc. <br /> Estimated Demand for General-Occupancy Rental Housing <br /> Table HD-2 presents our calculation of general occupancy rental housing demand for Elk River. <br /> This analysis identifies potential demand for rental housing that is generated from both new <br /> households and turnover households. <br /> We first calculate potential demand from new household growth by age group based on the <br /> propensity of households to rent their housing. Secondly, we calculate demand from existing <br /> renter households in Elk River that would turn over. Younger households tend to be more <br /> highly mobile than older households, but generally the youngest are unable to afford rents at <br /> the top of the market unless they receive assistance from parents or desire a roommate. <br /> Next we calculate the proportion of these households that would seek new general occupancy <br /> multifamily housing versus renting at older properties and apply these proportions to the <br /> income-qualified household market turning over. <br /> MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. 77 <br />