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Air toxics analysis is a continuing area of research. While much work has been done <br />to assess the overall health risk of air toxics, many questions remain unanswered. In <br />particular, the tools and techniques for assessing project-specific health outcomes <br />as a result of lifetime MSAT exposure remain limited. These limitations impede the <br />ability to evaluate how the potential health risks posed by MSAT exposure should be <br />factored into project-level decision-making within the context of the National <br />Environmental Policy Act. The FHWA will continue to monitor the developing <br />research in this emerging field. <br />Because of the uncertainties outlined above, a quantitative assessment of the effects <br />of air toxic emissions impacts on human health cannot be made at the project level. <br />While available tools do allow us to reasonably predict relative emissions changes <br />between alternatives for larger projects, the amount of MSAT emissions from each <br />of the study scenarios and MSAT concentrations or exposures created by each of the <br />study scenarios cannot be predicted with enough accuracy to be useful in estimating <br />health impacts. Therefore, the relevance of the unavailable or incomplete <br />information is that it is not possible to make a determination of whether any of the <br />scenarios would have."significant adverse impacts on the human environment." <br />This document acknowledges that the build scenarios may result in increased <br />exposure to MSAT emissions in certain locations, although the concentrations and <br />duration of exposures are uncertain, and because of this uncertainty, the health <br />effects from these emissions cannot be estimated. <br /> Although a qualitative analysis cannot identify and measure health impacts from <br /> MSATs, it can give a basis for identifying and comparing the potential differences <br /> among MSAT emissions, if any, from the various scenarios. The qualitative <br />' assessment presented below is derived in part from a study conducted by the FHWA <br /> entitled A Methodology for Evaluating Mobile Source Air Toxic Emissions Among <br /> Transportation Project Alternatives. <br /> For each scenario in this AUAR, the amount of MSAT emitted would be proportional <br /> to the average daily traffic (ADT) assuming that other variables such as fleet mix are <br /> the same for each scenario. The ADT estimated for each of the build scenarios is <br /> higher than that for the no build condition, because the interchange facilitates new <br /> development that attracts trips that would not otherwise occur in the area. This <br /> increase in ADT means MSAT under the build scenarios would probably be higher <br /> than the no build condition in the study area. There could also be localized <br />' differences in MSAT from indirect effects of the project such as associated access <br /> traffic, emissions of evaporative MSAT (e.g., benzene) from parked cars, and <br /> emissions of diesel particulate matter from delivery trucks. Travel to other <br />' destinations would be reduced with subsequent decreases in emissions at those <br /> locations. <br /> <br />r <br /> <br />For all scenarios, emissions are virtually certain to be lower than present levels in <br />the design year as a result of EPA's national control programs that are projected to <br />reduce annual MSAT emissions by 72 percent from 1999 to 2050, as shown in the <br />City of Elk River <br />Draft Alternative Urban Areawide Review <br />August 2011 <br />Page 78 of 90 <br />