4.3. SR 06-16-2003 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Review of Benefit-Cost Analysis of Northstar Commuter Rail 7 SummarY-while it is impossible to predict by how much the capital cost of commuter rail will exceed estimates, it is clear that the operating cost of commuter rail should be increased by $137.7 million. Alternatives to Commuter Rail Anton, Lubov calculated the costs of two alternatives to Northstar commuter rail. One alternative was to build a new lane on U.S. 10 for the entire 82 miles of the Northstar rail route. At $13 million a mile, Anton, Lubov estimated that this would cost $1,068 million. The other alternative was to build exclusive bus lanes for 41 miles of the route. Along with stations and new buses, this was estimated to cost $525 million. These costs are far too high. Moreover, particularly in the case of a new highway lane, they compare apples with oranges because a new highway lane would carry far more traffic than could be carried by a commuter rail line. Anton, Lubov assumed that a new lane on U.S. 10 would cost an average of $13 million per mile. An exclusive bus lane was assumed to cost nearly the same, or about $11 million per mile. Such costs are unrealistically high, particularly since most of U.S. 10 goes through rural areas where land costs are low. Highway costs can be very expensive when there is a lot of tunneling or bridgework involved, as in the Boston Central Artery project. But when Los Angeles completed its Century Freeway in 1993, many called it the most expensive road in the world. Yet it cost only about $15 million per lane mile, much of which went to mitigate the impacts of the highway on nearby neighborhoods, not for actual construction.4 In general, limited access freeways such as Interstate 94 will cost an average of $5 million per lane mile, while arterials such as U.S. 10 will cost an average of $2.5 million a lane mile. Anton, Lubov's $13 million per lane mile cost is probably five times higher than is realistic. In reality, the alternative to Northstar commuter rail is not new construction but simply to run comfortable, long-distance commuter buses on 1-94 between Rice, St. Cloud, and Minneapolis-St. Paul. Buses have the advantage that they are more flexible than four-car trains. While a four-car train would be nearly empty along part of its route, buses could be run in the numbers needed for each segment of the route between Rice and Minneapolis. Buses could also continue onto St. Paul, Bloomington, or other major points in the Twin Cities. Anton, Lubov estimates total capital costs of its alternative busway of $525 million, of which about $450 million is for construction of exclusive bus lanes.