4.3. SR 06-16-2003 - Laserfiche WebLink

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Review of Benefit-Cost Analysis of Northstar Commuter Rail 3 driving during the peak hour, this will lead other people to shift their work hours, routes, or locations. The net effect will be a minimal change in travel delays. Vehicle operating cost savings-Savings in vehicle operating costs represented the largest benefit calculated by either MnDOT or Anton, Lubov. The crucial assumption for this benefit is that motor vehicles cost an average of 28.8 cents per mile to operate. This high cost, however, is not the true operating cost of a motor vehicle; instead, it is the cost of ownership. In other words, it includes both variable operating costs, such as tires and gasoline, and fixed ownership costs, including insurance and depreciation. According to the American Automobile Association, when only variable costs are counted, the average cost of operating an automobile is around 13.1 cents per passenger mile3 Because gasoline represents only about half of this cost, even the most fuel-inefficient sport-utility vehicles cost only one or two cents more than this. For example, AAA says that a Chevrolet Trailblazer costs 13.5 cents per mile to operate. Unless MnDOT can make a convincing case that commuter rail will lead significant numbers of people to give up their automobiles completely, the 28.8 cent cost that it assumes is more than twice the real operating cost. Since commuter rail operates only in a narrow corridor and only during rush hour, few people are likely to give up their automobiles because of the Northstar rail line. Thus, the benefit calculated for vehicle operating cost savings must be reduced by more than half. Vehicle accident cost savings-MnDOT estimates that auto drivers suffer 1.19 accidents per million miles of travel, an estimate that Anton, Lubov retained. I do not know the source of this estimate. However, it is worth noting that interstate highway travel tends to be much safer than travel on other roads. If the 1.19 number is based on a state-wide average, it is likely to be far greater than the accident rate on 1-94, the principle alternative to Northstar commuter rail. Pollution cost savings-MnDOT estimated that the Northstar commuter rail would lead to $33.4 million worth of air pollution benefits. Since Anton, Lubov accepted this number, its report does not say how it was calculated. However, the benefit is dubious, as the EPA says that Minnesota has no 'nonattainment areas" for any air pollutant, meaning that it has no serious air pollution problems. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, people in the Mirmeapolis- St. Paul and St. Cloud urban areas drive more than 63 million miles a day. If the Northstar commuter rail carries 9,600 people an average of 22.1 miles a day, and