INFORMATION #2 07-19-2010 - Laserfiche WebLink

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INFORMATION The Ciry makes sure we are sufficiently liquid by continually updating our forecast on the anticipated cash flow needs over the next five year time horizon. We also build in a reserve balance incase of unexpected expenditures, these funds are maintained in money market accounts through the 4M Fund. We anticipate the fact that we will have two large tax settlements each year, along with the regularly scheduled debt service payments that occur each year. Over the past couple of years the search for quality has been the goal, thus we have avoided commercial paper for the last year due to concerns over the credit quality issues that have existed. In addition, for high quality commercial paper the yield is several basis points below a short-term CD. The markets have seen increased volatility in the bond markets and the yield curve has remained relatively flat in the 30 day to year range, but the longer side of the curve has showed some signs of an upward- sloping shape which has meant long-term securities slightly exceed returns on short-term instruments. This may also indicate that investors still prefer liquidity and will take a lower yield for short-term and secure investments. The City has to weigh the opportunity cost to invest in longer term investments or ride the yield curve and reinvest at shorter maturity intervals. Most recent purchases have been agencies with callable provisions as interest rates step-up, these are somewhat predictable of when they will be called and are aligned with our cash flow model. Investing in shorter-term investments has presented far fewer options since the decline in the commercial paper market. Treasury yields are still around historical lows. Three month notes are yielding 0.18% and the ten year notes are 2.97%. See graphical illustration below: http: / /www.ustreas.gov/offices /domestic-finance/debt-management/interest- rate / yie Id_historical. shtml Troasury Yiolds 5.00% ..._ __.. ._..._.. ~.~___.-._ _.__ ._._. - 4.00% - __. .. ~ 3.50 % - _~____~~_.._.....,.,_.~: - .. .,.~~.....:....___~ _ 3.00 % _.._..,..____._......._,;...- _ _... _ _.,......_~,_..__.__~ - - -..,- ~~ 03/31 /201 O 2.50% - - -- - - - -----.. -----_ ____. - _..___~ +06/30/2010 2.00% .._.__~._ _.----- - _. _. __ -- - .._-- - 1 .00 % ~ .. -- -- - ... ...-- - _.. __.--- ~-- -._.... -I 0.50 % - - ._ _... ~.._.~ - - - - ---- - -j 0.00% -T '-- 1 mo. 3mo. 6mo. 1 y r. 2y r. 3y r. 5y r. 7y r. 1 Oy r. 30y r. Cities generally use a short horizon benchmark such as the two year Treasury Bill (6/30 - .61%dotyn from 1.02% at 3/31) or some similar measure. Our current portfolio yield is roughly 1.72%. This is calculated by taking the yield times the current value for each investment and dividing the resulting amount by the total portfolio value. As investments purchased in earlier years mature we will be able to replace them and lock into some longer term interest rates, but they may have to be reinvested at lower interest rates as market conditions change. It is very typical to lag the market as interest rates change. This will lead to more predictability in our interest earnings. Our primary reserve account is our 4M Fund which is a money market account that various cities pool their funds into. It currently yields .OS% with daily withdrawal privileges. We are maintaining our regular liquidity position in order to reinvest at higher rates when the